India is expected to witness below-average monsoon rainfall in July after recording its fifth-driest June since weather records began in 1901, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The forecast has raised concerns over agricultural production, water availability, and the country’s economic growth, as the southwest monsoon plays a vital role in supporting India’s farm-dependent economy.
IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said July rainfall is likely to remain below 94% of the long-period average (LPA). The department had earlier predicted June rainfall at less than 92% of the LPA, but the month eventually ended with rainfall 39.8% below normal, making it one of the driest Junes on record. July is considered the most important month of the four-month monsoon season, contributing the largest share of seasonal rainfall.
The southwest monsoon provides nearly 70% of India’s annual rainfall, replenishing reservoirs, rivers, and groundwater that are essential for agriculture and drinking water supplies. Nearly half of the country’s farmland depends solely on rainfall for irrigation, while around half of India’s population relies on farming for their livelihood. A weaker-than-normal July monsoon could impact the sowing of key summer crops and pose challenges for agricultural output in the months ahead.